
Following The Weather Chanel’s information on Hurricane Week we came across this worthwhile analysis by hurricane expect Dr. Rick Knabb. He compiled a Top 5 list of cities that are overdue for a hurricane hit. We hate to be the bearer of bad news, but we have to to admit it may just be there turn to experience the need for some water extraction.
The reason these cities ranked so high in the list is because they have gone the longest without a direct hit from the core of a “significant” hurricane. The list’s order is based on how many years it has been since it last experienced an intense storm. For some of the cities, their last “significant” direct hit was from a major hurricane, while for others that have no known direct hits from a major hurricane, their last direct hit from any hurricane is the determining factor.
Fifth on the list is Tampa, it’s last extreme hit was in 1921 when it was hit by a category 2 hurricane, one that produced storm surges up to about 10 feet in Tampa Bay. Needless to say it causes extensive damage. Storm surge in some areas of Hillsborough County, home to the city of Tampa, could be as high as 15 to 20 feet or more above the ground in a major hurricane, and the ocean could penetrate up to three miles inland, especially near rivers or canals.
After Tampa comes Savannah, Georgia. The last time it was evacuated was in 1999 with Hurricane Floyd, the city was so pre-cautious because of it’s coastal location (Floyd missed it to the east). The Georgia coast is extremely vulnerable to storm surges because of the shallow Atlantic waters off the U.S. In 1979 David, a Category 1, came ashore but the damage was minimal. The National Weather Service has termed Georgia hurricanes a “sleeping giant,” because it has not experience a major hurricane since 1893.
The Big Apple comes in third place. Although most people do not think of New York City as a hurricane-vulnerable city the truth is hurricanes have struck there before. It experienced a direct hit in 1821, and 1893 is experienced a Category 1 between Coney Island and JFK Airport. 118 years have passed and, to current residents, New York City seems to have essentially no history of hurricanes at all. Storms like Bob, the New England Hurricane, and others to name a few have all missed the city of dreams. New York City is dangerous for two reasons, its population, and northeastern U.S. hurricanes usually move quickly, and a day or two prior to striking they often lurk more than a thousand miles away.
Second place is taken by San Diego, California. Who ever thinks of hurricanes in sunny Cali, right? Well, only one hurricane is known to have ever impacted the coast of California with hurricane-force winds. There is no satellite or camera evidence of the storm because it happened such a long time ago, in 1858. California residents experienced extensive water damage as a result. Hurricanes are so rare there because of the very cool ocean temperatures over the eastern Pacific. For a hurricane to occur on the Cali cost is must be moving fast enough, over waters that are warm enough to hit shore.
And the top overdue city is Honolulu, Hawaii. Although the hurricane plans for Hawaii are some of the most extensive I have ever seen, including different phases and scenarios, an extreme storm has not hit its shores since, well, never. There are no known records of a major hurricane strike in Honolulu. The reason for such preparation is that there is no meteorological reason why the core of a major hurricane cannot directly strike Honolulu. And everyone can agree, the thought of a major hurricane striking Honolulu is terrifying. The winds alone would be bad enough, with most homes not built to withstand hurricane-force winds, many of them perilously perched on mountain slopes, and numerous high-rises that would lose windows especially on upper floors. Add to that the flooding because of waves and storm surge that would occur near the coast as the ocean moves inland, plus rainfall-induced flooding that could send water rushing down the mountains from the opposite direction.